Risk of Ruin Calculator

4.7 out of 5 stars (3 votes)

Trading success hinges not just on profitable strategies, but on effective risk management. Our advanced Risk of Ruin Calculator gives you the statistical edge needed to protect your trading capital and build sustainable long-term growth.

Risk of Ruin Calculator

Calculate your risk of ruin - the probability of losing your trading capital based on your strategy parameters.

Your historical win rate as a percentage.
Percentage of account risked on each trade.
Your average reward to risk ratio (1.0 means equal risk and reward).
Maximum drawdown you consider as ruin.
Risk of Ruin: --
Expected Value Per Trade: --
Consecutive Losses for Ruin: --
Probability Assessment: --

Note: This calculator provides risk estimates based on statistical models. The risk of ruin is calculated using the probability of reaching the specified drawdown limit given your trading parameters. Lower risk of ruin values indicate a more sustainable trading strategy.

Understanding the Advanced Statistics

  • Profit Factor: The ratio of gross profits to gross losses. A value of 2.0 means your winning trades generate twice as much profit as your losing trades cost. Values above 1.5 are considered good, while values below 1.0 indicate a losing system.
  • Kelly Criterion: The mathematically optimal percentage of your account to risk per trade for maximum long-term growth. In practice, many traders use half-Kelly (half this value) for safer position sizing. A negative Kelly suggests the system has negative expectancy.
  • Recovery Factor: A measure of how quickly your system can recover from drawdowns. Higher values indicate greater system robustness. Values below 1.0 suggest high vulnerability to drawdowns, while values above 5.0 indicate excellent recovery capability.
  • Required Win Rate: The minimum win rate needed to break even with your current reward-to-risk ratio. If your actual win rate exceeds this threshold, your system has positive expectancy. For example, with a 2:1 reward-to-risk ratio, you only need to win 33.3% of trades to break even.

What is Risk of Ruin?

Risk of Ruin represents the probability of losing a specific portion of your trading capital. Unlike basic profit calculators, this comprehensive tool analyzes your trading parameters to determine the statistical likelihood of reaching your maximum acceptable drawdown—giving you crucial insights before you risk real money.

Key Features of Our Advanced Risk Calculator

Real-Time Risk Assessment

Watch as your risk profile updates instantly as you adjust parameters. No more clicking “calculate” buttons—our tool provides immediate feedback with color-coded risk assessments:

  • Green – Low risk (under 5%)
  • Yellow – Moderate risk (5-25%)
  • Orange – High risk (25-50%)
  • Red – Extreme risk (over 50%)

Professional Trading Metrics

Make data-driven decisions with professional-grade statistics:

  • Risk of Ruin Percentage – Your statistical probability of hitting the specified drawdown
  • Expected Value Per Trade – Average profit/loss expectancy for each trade
  • Consecutive Losses for Ruin – How many sequential losses would cause maximum drawdown
  • Probability Assessment – Intuitive evaluation of your risk level

Advanced Trading Statistics

Our calculator goes beyond basics to include metrics used by professional fund managers:

  • Profit Factor – The ratio of gross profits to gross losses, indicating system profitability
  • Kelly Criterion – Mathematically optimal position sizing for maximum account growth
  • Recovery Factor – How quickly your system can recover from drawdowns
  • Required Win Rate – The minimum win rate needed with your reward-risk ratio

Interactive Parameter Adjustment

Fine-tune your trading approach with these customizable inputs:

  • Win Rate – Your historical percentage of winning trades
  • Risk Per Trade – Percentage of account risked on each position
  • Reward:Risk Ratio – Average profit relative to risk on winning trades
  • Account Drawdown Limit – Maximum acceptable drawdown percentage

Why Professional Traders Rely on Risk of Ruin Analysis

Trading without understanding your risk of ruin is like driving blindfolded. Even trading systems with positive expectancy can fail if risk parameters aren’t properly calibrated. Our calculator helps you:

  • Assess the long-term viability of your trading strategy
  • Determine appropriate position sizing for capital preservation
  • Compare different trading approaches objectively
  • Understand the relationship between win rate, risk per trade, and reward-risk ratio
  • Make informed decisions based on statistical probability rather than emotion

Educational Trading Resources

Each metric includes detailed explanations to improve your trading knowledge:

  • Hover over any metric for instant tooltip explanations
  • Read comprehensive descriptions of each advanced statistic
  • Learn how professional traders use these metrics to preserve capital
  • Understand the mathematical principles behind successful risk management

Integrate with Your Trading Strategy Today

Whether you’re a forex trader, stock investor, or cryptocurrency enthusiast, proper risk management is essential for long-term success. Our Risk of Ruin Calculator integrates seamlessly with other trading tools including our Pip Calculator, Drawdown Calculator, and Compounding Calculator.

Take the guesswork out of position sizing and risk management. Your trading account will thank you.

 

❔ Frequently asked questions

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How accurate is the Risk of Ruin Calculator?

The Risk of Ruin Calculator provides statistically sound estimates based on probability theory and trading mathematics. However, real-world trading involves market complexities not captured by pure statistics. The calculator assumes your win rate and reward-risk ratio remain consistent over time. Use it as a powerful guideline rather than an absolute prediction.

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What's a good Risk of Ruin percentage?

Professional traders typically aim for a Risk of Ruin below 5% (shown in green). Percentages between 5-25% (yellow) are considered moderate risk, while anything above 25% indicates a high risk of significant drawdowns. If your Risk of Ruin shows above 50% (red), you should strongly consider adjusting your trading parameters.

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How can I reduce my Risk of Ruin?

There are several ways to lower your Risk of Ruin:

  1. Increase your win rate through better trade selection
  2. Reduce the percentage risked per trade
  3. Improve your reward-to-risk ratio by letting profits run and cutting losses short
  4. Increase your acceptable drawdown limit (though this should be done cautiously)

The calculator allows you to adjust these parameters in real-time to find the optimal combination.

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What is the Kelly Criterion?

The Kelly Criterion is a formula that determines the optimal percentage of your account to risk on each trade for maximum long-term growth. It takes into account your edge (win rate and reward-risk ratio). Many professional traders use ‘Half Kelly’ (half the recommended percentage) to reduce volatility while maintaining good growth. A negative Kelly suggests your trading system has negative expectancy.

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Can I use this calculator for any trading market?

Yes, the Risk of Ruin Calculator works for any financial market—stocks, forex, futures, crypto, or options—because it’s based on universal trading mathematics rather than market-specific factors. The calculations apply to any trading system where you can determine your win rate, risk per trade, and reward-risk ratio.

Author: Florian Fendt
An ambitious investor and trader, Florian founded BrokerCheck after studying economics at university. Since 2017 he shares his knowledge and passion for the financial markets on BrokerCheck.
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